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Pressure: compare the low-tourism 2020–21 season with the others (#175) - #180
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Tourism on Moorea fell by more than half in 2020 (ISPF). Fieldwork runs October to February, so the border closure missed it, but 2020-21 was sampled while visitors were scarce. /pressure now compares that season's catch rate with the rest (negative-binomial LRT, adjusted for nursery and day of the season), with copy that says one season is confounded with everything else about that year. ISPF's island series are PDF-only and PGEM zones need a data source (#176), so neither is charted yet. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Reviewed both changed files and the existing The comparison uses timed, dated sets; skips season adjustment because season is the factor being tested; retains nursery/day-of-season adjustment; and clearly explains single-season confounding. The bar chart explicitly describes a mean per-set rate, while the statistical helper fits counts with a net-hours offset. The low-tourism section is omitted if that season has no eligible sets. Independently ran lint, type checks (0 errors/warnings), unit tests (118 passed; 2 opt-in real-data tests skipped) and production build on this branch. Private data is unavailable, so I did not reproduce the PR's real-data numbers or independently verify the cited tourism report. No changes pushed to this PR; no merge or deployment performed. |
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Reviewed #180 and pushed c3e341c to correct the sampling-date claim and tighten the source wording. [P2] Report the sample's actual dates. The text assumed an October-February field season, but the eligible 2020-21 timed sets begin in September. The loader now supplies first/last eligible dates and the page renders those dates. This avoids silently misdescribing the observations used in the comparison. The ISPF source reports hotel-room sales, so the copy now names that measure and explicitly treats it as a visitor proxy, rather than a count of people on the water. Linked the accessible ISPF publication page, whose hotel statistics support the decline. Removed the unnecessary claim that the source is available only as PDF dashboards. Added a short sampling-date/source-metric note to AGENTS.md. The catch-rate comparison is unchanged: checked timed/dated sample selection, mean per-set rates, net-hours offsets, and skipping season adjustment because season is the tested factor. The single-season confounding caveat remains. Validation: pnpm lint; pnpm check (0 errors/warnings); pnpm test (118 passed, 2 opt-in tests skipped); opt-in real-data import test (1 passed); pnpm build. A local production-browser check against the real data verified the computed sample dates, corrected source wording, displayed rates and nursery/day-of-season adjusted statistics. No spreadsheets changed. Review complete. |
Part of #175 (the tourism half, scoped down; see below). Independent of the map PRs, branched from
main.What
New "A season with few visitors" section on
/pressure:rateTestStatistics line (raw, then adjusted for nursery and day of the season; season skipped because it is the factor under test). Numbers are computed live.Real data: 1.04 vs 0.99 sharks per net-hour (97 vs 1,088 sets); no detectable difference (adjusted p = 0.10).
Not done from #175
Checks
pnpm lint,pnpm check,pnpm test, opt-in real-data test; page checked in the dev server.🤖 Generated with Claude Code