Crows Chart

A Bitcoin chart from 2010 to today with 87 clickable overlays. Turn on halvings, QE/QT, rate hikes and cuts, elections, wars, crashes, on-chain metrics and price models, then see what BTC did before, during and after each one.

Made by Crypto Crow · CryptoCrow.io · YouTube: @cryptocrowofficial

What it does

• Full BTC history. Daily candles from Bitstamp (Aug 2011 on). Before that, the CoinMetrics daily price (from Jul 2010), drawn as grey candles because no real open/high/low exists.
• TradingView-style chart built with Lightweight Charts: drag, zoom, stretch the price axis, resize the panels, switch between 1D/1W/1M and log/linear.
• Left panel of overlays. Click to turn each one on or off. There are three kinds:
  • Event lines for halvings, rate hikes, FTX and similar one-day events.
  • Shaded periods for QT, wars, recessions, midterm years and similar spans.
  • Data lines for Fed liquidity, MVRV, the 200-week MA and similar series, either on the price chart or in a panel below.
• Evidence grade on every overlay: A strong, B medium, C weak / folklore.
• Before/after slider. Shades N days before and after every event.
• Compare table. BTC % move before, during and after every instance, with the average and median. Rows that are in the future or still running are left out of the average.
• Hover over any line or period to see what it is and when it happened.
• Free data only. No API keys. FRED, CoinMetrics community, Bitstamp, blockchain.com, alternative.me and DefiLlama.
• AI remote control (optional). Run Claude Code in this folder and ask a question, for example "how does BTC act around midterms?" Claude answers on your chart. It turns on overlays, zooms in, draws boxes and leaves a note card (see bin/chart.mjs).

Not financial advice. Correlation is not cause. Bitcoin has had only 4 halving cycles, so every pattern here rests on a few examples.

Run it

You need Node.js 20 or newer.

git clone https://github.com/CrowsCoder/crows-chart.git
cd crows-chart
npm install
npm start

Open http://127.0.0.1:5178. The first start downloads the data, which takes about 15 seconds. After that the data refreshes when it is more than 12 hours old, or when you click Refresh data.

On a Mac you can double-click Start Crows Chart.command instead.

Public site

A free, non-commercial copy runs at https://chart.cryptocrow.io.

• A daily GitHub Action (.github/workflows/publish.yml) fetches fresh data, builds a static site (npm run build:public), and pushes it to the site branch.
• Cloudflare Pages publishes the site branch.
• The public site leaves out the Claude link and 5 overlays whose data terms don't allow public redistribution: Nasdaq, VIX, high-yield spread, stablecoins and difficulty. See scripts/public-policy.json.
• The data stays © its owners. Coin Metrics Community data is licensed CC BY-NC 4.0, so do not use the public site or its JSON commercially.

Commands

Command	What it does
npm start	Start the local server (only on 127.0.0.1)
npm run fetch	Download fresh data now
npm run build:public	Build the static public site into dist/
npm run docs	Rebuild the overlay tables below and docs/OVERLAYS.md
node bin/chart.mjs help	Remote-control the open chart (used by Claude)
node bin/chart.mjs stats midterms 365	Print BTC % before/after every midterm, no browser needed

Overlays

Every overlay, what it shows and where its data comes from. For every date each overlay draws, see docs/OVERLAYS.md. For the research list behind the app, see docs/btc-price-drivers.md.

87 overlays in 15 groups. Generated by npm run docs. Full dates for every overlay: docs/OVERLAYS.md.

Halving & 4-year cycle

Overlay	Evidence	What it is	Shows	Data source
Halvings halvings	A	Block reward cut in half every 210,000 blocks (~4 years).	5 event lines	Hand-curated dates (public/js/events-data.js)
Halving epochs (4-year cycles) halving-epochs	A	Shaded halving-to-halving periods.	5 shaded periods	Halving dates
Cycle tops cycle-peaks	B	Highest price of each cycle, found in the data.	5 event lines	Found in BTC price data (highest high in fixed date windows)
Cycle bottoms cycle-bottoms	B	Lowest price of each bear market, found in the data.	5 event lines	Found in BTC price data (lowest low in fixed date windows)
Halving → top runs halving-to-top	B	Shaded run from each halving to the next cycle top. Shows the ~12–18 month pattern.	4 shaded periods	Halving dates + cycle tops found in price data
Days since halving days-since-halving	B	Counter that resets at every halving.	Days since halving (panel below)	Computed from halving dates
BTC supply inflation % (yearly) inflation	A	New coins per year ÷ supply. Drops at each halving.	Supply inflation % (panel below)	CoinMetrics community API
Stock-to-Flow model (PlanB 2019) s2f	C	ln(market cap) = 3.3·ln(S2F) + 14.6. Model failed in 2021–22. Shown for reference.	S2F model price (line on price)	CoinMetrics community API

Central bank money (QE / QT)

Overlay	Evidence	What it is	Shows	Data source
QE periods (money printing) qe	A	Fed buying bonds = adding money. Includes "Not-QE" and RMP.	7 shaded periods	Hand-curated dates (public/js/events-data.js)
QT periods (money draining) qt	A	Fed shrinking its balance sheet = removing money.	2 shaded periods	Hand-curated dates (public/js/events-data.js)
Taper periods taper	B	Fed slowing QE before stopping it.	2 shaded periods	Hand-curated dates (public/js/events-data.js)
Fed balance sheet ($T) fed-balance	A	FRED WALCL. Rising = QE, falling = QT.	Fed balance sheet $T (line on its own scale)	FRED WALCL
Fed net liquidity ($T) net-liquidity	A	Balance sheet − Treasury account (TGA) − reverse repo. Tracks BTC closely since 2020.	Net liquidity $T (line on its own scale)	FRED WALCL, FRED WTREGEN, FRED RRPONTSYD
Treasury General Account ($B) tga	B	Government cash at the Fed. Rising TGA drains liquidity.	TGA $B (panel below)	FRED WTREGEN
Reverse repo ($B) rrp	B	Cash parked at the Fed. Draining RRP adds liquidity.	Reverse repo $B (panel below)	FRED RRPONTSYD
US M2 money supply ($T) m2	A	FRED M2SL, monthly.	US M2 $T (line on its own scale)	FRED M2SL
US M2 growth % (yearly) m2-yoy	A	Year-over-year change in M2. Negative in 2023 for the first time since the 1930s.	M2 YoY % (panel below)	FRED M2SL
Global M2 (multi-country)	—	Not included: No clean free daily source for China/EU/Japan M2 in USD.	—	Paid / blocked

Interest rates

Overlay	Evidence	What it is	Shows	Data source
Fed funds rate (upper target) fed-rate	A	FRED DFEDTARU.	Fed funds upper % (panel below)	FRED DFEDTARU
Rate hikes rate-hikes	A	Each Fed hike, from the rate data.	21 event lines	FRED DFEDTARU
Rate cuts rate-cuts	A	Each Fed cut, from the rate data. Includes 2020 emergency cuts.	11 event lines	FRED DFEDTARU
Hiking cycles hiking-cycles	A	First to last hike of each run.	2 shaded periods	FRED DFEDTARU
Cutting cycles cutting-cycles	A	First to last cut of each run.	2 shaded periods	FRED DFEDTARU
Zero-rate eras zirp	B	Fed funds upper bound at 0.25% or below.	2 shaded periods	FRED DFEDTARU
Fed chair changes fed-chairs	B	Yellen 2014, Powell 2018, Warsh 2026.	4 event lines	Hand-curated dates (public/js/events-data.js)
10Y real yield (TIPS) real-yield	A	Higher real yield is usually bad for BTC and gold.	10Y real yield % (panel below)	FRED DFII10
Yield curve (10Y − 2Y) yield-curve	B	Below 0 = inverted. Historic recession warning.	10Y−2Y % (panel below)	FRED T10Y2Y

US politics

Overlay	Evidence	What it is	Shows	Data source
Presidential elections presidential	B	Line on election day. Shaded campaign year (Jan 1 → election).	5 event lines; 5 shaded periods	Hand-curated dates (public/js/events-data.js)
Midterm elections midterms	B	Line on election day. Shaded midterm year (Jan 1 → election). All 3 past midterms were near bear-market lows.	5 event lines; 5 shaded periods	Hand-curated dates (public/js/events-data.js)
Inaugurations inaugurations	C	New president sworn in (Jan 20).	5 event lines	Hand-curated dates (public/js/events-data.js)
Presidential cycle years pres-cycle	C	Stock-market theory: Year 1 post-election, Year 2 midterm (weakest), Year 3 pre-election (strongest), Year 4 election.	19 shaded periods	Calendar: 4-year US presidential term
Government shutdowns shutdowns	C	Federal funding lapses.	6 shaded periods	Hand-curated dates (public/js/events-data.js)
US credit downgrades & debt ceiling downgrades	C	S&P 2011, Fitch 2023, Moody's 2025, 2023 debt-ceiling deal.	4 event lines	Hand-curated dates (public/js/events-data.js)
Crypto policy & regulation policy	B	China bans, futures launches, ETF approval, Strategic Reserve, GENIUS Act.	14 event lines	Hand-curated dates (public/js/events-data.js)

Business cycle & macro

Overlay	Evidence	What it is	Shows	Data source
US recessions (NBER) recessions	B	Official recession months. Only one (2020) since BTC began.	2 shaded periods	FRED USREC
US dollar index (broad) dollar	A	FRED broad trade-weighted dollar. Moves like DXY. Strong dollar usually = weak BTC.	USD broad index (line on its own scale)	FRED DTWEXBGS
Nasdaq Composite nasdaq	A	Tech stocks. BTC often trades like a tech stock.	Nasdaq (line on its own scale)	FRED NASDAQCOM
CPI inflation % (yearly) cpi	B	Consumer prices, year over year.	CPI YoY % (panel below)	FRED CPIAUCSL
Unemployment rate unemployment	B	Rising unemployment often leads to rate cuts.	Unemployment % (panel below)	FRED UNRATE
VIX (stock fear index) vix	B	Spikes = panic in stocks.	VIX (panel below)	FRED VIXCLS
High-yield credit spread hy-spread	B	Risk appetite. FRED only gives the last ~3 years free.	HY spread % (panel below)	FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2
Macro shocks macro-shocks	B	Cyprus, Greece, yuan devaluation, Brexit, COVID, SVB, yen carry crash.	9 event lines	Hand-curated dates (public/js/events-data.js)
ISM Manufacturing PMI	—	Not included: ISM removed it from FRED. Paid only.	—	Paid / blocked

Wars & geopolitics

Overlay	Evidence	What it is	Shows	Data source
Wars & conflicts (start → end) wars	B	Shaded from start to end. Open-ended wars run to today.	7 shaded periods	Hand-curated dates (public/js/events-data.js)
Geopolitical shock days war-events	B	Invasions, strikes, attacks, tariff shocks.	17 event lines	Hand-curated dates (public/js/events-data.js)

Crypto news & crises

Overlay	Evidence	What it is	Shows	Data source
Crypto crises & milestones crypto-news	B	Mt. Gox, FTX, Terra, Celsius, hacks, Tesla, forks, record liquidations.	27 event lines	Hand-curated dates (public/js/events-data.js)
FTX collapse ftx	B	Withdrawals halted 2022-11-08. Bankruptcy 2022-11-11. Cycle bottom 10 days later.	2 event lines	Hand-curated dates (public/js/events-data.js)
Exchange failures & hacks exchange-failures	B	Mt. Gox, Bitfinex, Coincheck, FTX, Bybit.	11 event lines	Hand-curated dates (public/js/events-data.js)

Miners & hash power

Overlay	Evidence	What it is	Shows	Data source
Hash rate hashrate	B	Total mining power (CoinMetrics). Follows price with a lag.	Hash rate (TH/s) (line on its own scale)	CoinMetrics community API
Mining difficulty difficulty	B	Adjusts every 2,016 blocks (~2 weeks). blockchain.com.	Difficulty (line on its own scale)	blockchain.com
Hash Ribbons hash-ribbons	B	30-day vs 60-day hash rate average. Marker = 30d crosses back above 60d (miner capitulation over). Simplified version.	40 event lines; Hash 30d (panel below); Hash 60d (panel below)	CoinMetrics community API
Puell Multiple puell	B	Miner issuance USD ÷ its 365-day average. Below 0.5 = bottom zone, above 4 = top zone.	Puell (panel below)	CoinMetrics community API

On-chain value

Overlay	Evidence	What it is	Shows	Data source
Realized price realized-price	A	Average price every coin last moved at. Market cap ÷ MVRV ÷ supply.	Realized price (line on price)	CoinMetrics community API
MVRV ratio mvrv	A	Market value ÷ realized value. Below 1 = bottom zone, above 3.7 = top zone (history).	MVRV (panel below)	CoinMetrics community API
MVRV Z-Score mvrv-z	A	(Market cap − realized cap) ÷ std dev of market cap. Above 7 = top zone, below 0 = bottom zone. Did not reach 7 in 2025.	MVRV Z (panel below)	CoinMetrics community API
NUPL (net unrealized profit/loss) nupl	A	1 − 1/MVRV. Below 0 = capitulation, above 0.75 = euphoria.	NUPL (panel below)	CoinMetrics community API
Active addresses active-addresses	B	Daily active addresses (CoinMetrics), 7-day average.	Active addresses 7d (panel below)	CoinMetrics community API
Transactions per day tx-count	C	On-chain transactions, 7-day average.	Tx/day 7d (panel below)	CoinMetrics community API
Stablecoin supply ($B) stablecoins	A	Total USD stablecoins (DefiLlama). "Dry powder" to buy crypto.	Stablecoins $B (line on its own scale)	DefiLlama
SOPR / LTH supply / HODL waves	—	Not included: Glassnode / CryptoQuant paid API.	—	Paid / blocked
Exchange balances & netflows	—	Not included: CryptoQuant / Glassnode paid API.	—	Paid / blocked

Price models

Overlay	Evidence	What it is	Shows	Data source
200-week moving average ma200w	A	Historic bear-market floor.	200W SMA (line on price)	Computed from BTC daily price
Bull market support band bmsb	A	20-week SMA + 21-week EMA. Bull markets hold above it.	20W SMA (line on price); 21W EMA (line on price)	Computed from BTC daily price
Pi Cycle Top pi-cycle	B	111-day SMA crosses above 2× 350-day SMA = cycle top signal. Hit 2013, 2017, 2021. Not 2025.	4 event lines; 111D SMA (line on price); 350D SMA ×2 (line on price)	Computed from BTC daily price
2-year MA multiplier ma2y	B	2-year SMA (buy zone below) and 5× 2-year SMA (sell zone above).	2Y SMA (line on price); 2Y SMA ×5 (line on price)	Computed from BTC daily price
Golden Ratio Multiplier golden-ratio	B	350-day SMA × 1.6, 2, 3.	350D SMA (line on price); 350D ×1.6 (line on price); 350D ×2 (line on price); 350D ×3 (line on price)	Computed from BTC daily price
50 / 200-day MA (golden & death cross) ma50-200	B	Markers on each golden cross and death cross.	26 event lines; 50D SMA (line on price); 200D SMA (line on price)	Computed from BTC daily price
Mayer Multiple mayer	B	Price ÷ 200-day SMA. Below 0.8 cheap, above 2.4 hot.	Mayer (panel below)	Computed from BTC daily price
Power law (fitted) power-law	B	log(price) vs log(days since genesis), fitted to this chart's own data. Bands = 1st and 99th percentile.	Power law fit (line on price); Power law floor (line on price); Power law ceiling (line on price)	Computed from BTC daily price
Weekly RSI (14) rsi-weekly	B	Above 70 overbought, below 30 oversold.	Weekly RSI (panel below)	Computed from BTC daily price
Daily RSI (14) rsi-daily	B	Above 70 overbought, below 30 oversold.	Daily RSI (panel below)	Computed from BTC daily price
Realized volatility (30d) volatility	B	Yearly-scaled 30-day volatility. Low vol often comes before a big move.	Vol 30d % (panel below)	Computed from BTC daily price
Volume (Bitstamp) volume	B	Bitstamp BTC volume. Only one exchange, so a sample, not the whole market.	Volume BTC (panel below)	Computed from BTC daily price

Flows & big holders

Overlay	Evidence	What it is	Shows	Data source
Spot ETF era etf-era	A	US spot BTC ETFs trading since 2024-01-11.	1 event line; 1 shaded period	Hand-curated date
Corporate & government buyers corporate	B	MicroStrategy, Tesla, El Salvador, US Strategic Reserve.	5 event lines	Hand-curated dates (public/js/events-data.js)
Big sellers (Mt. Gox, governments) supply-overhang	B	German government sales and Mt. Gox repayments in 2024.	1 event line; 1 shaded period	Hand-curated dates (public/js/events-data.js)
Spot ETF daily flows	—	Not included: No free API (Farside is a web page only).	—	Paid / blocked
Coinbase premium	—	Not included: CryptoQuant paid API.	—	Paid / blocked

Derivatives & leverage

Overlay	Evidence	What it is	Shows	Data source
Big liquidation crashes liquidations	B	Days when leverage got wiped out.	6 event lines	Hand-curated dates (public/js/events-data.js)
Quarterly options expiry opex-q	B	Last Friday of Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec (Deribit, 08:00 UTC). From 2017.	44 event lines	Computed: last Friday of Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec
Monthly options expiry opex-m	C	Last Friday of every month (Deribit). From 2017.	132 event lines	Computed: last Friday of each month
Futures & leverage milestones cme-launch	B	CBOE/CME futures, first futures ETF.	3 event lines	Hand-curated dates (public/js/events-data.js)
Funding rates & open interest history	—	Not included: Binance/Bybit block US; others keep only ~3 months free.	—	Paid / blocked
Liquidation heatmap	—	Not included: Coinglass paid API.	—	Paid / blocked

Sentiment & market structure

Overlay	Evidence	What it is	Shows	Data source
Fear & Greed Index (alternative.me) fear-greed	B	Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index (alternative.me), from Feb 2018. Below 25 extreme fear, above 75 extreme greed.	Fear & Greed · Source: alternative.me (panel below)	alternative.me
ETH/BTC ratio eth-btc	B	Bitstamp, from Aug 2017. Rising = altcoin risk appetite.	ETH/BTC (panel below)	Bitstamp ETH/BTC
Google Trends	—	Not included: No official free API.	—	Paid / blocked
BTC dominance history	—	Not included: CoinGecko history needs a paid key.	—	Paid / blocked

Seasonality

Overlay	Evidence	What it is	Shows	Data source
Every September septembers	C	Historically weak month.	17 shaded periods	Calendar
Every October ("Uptober") octobers	C	Historically strong month.	17 shaded periods	Calendar
Every Q4 q4	C	Oct–Dec.	17 shaded periods	Calendar
Weekends weekends	C	Thin liquidity. Best on the daily chart.	849 shaded periods	Calendar
US tax day (Apr 15) tax-day	C	Tax selling folklore.	17 event lines	Calendar
Quarter ends quarter-ends	C	Fund rebalancing dates.	64 event lines	Calendar

Long waves & folklore

Overlay	Evidence	What it is	Shows	Data source
Benner cycle (1875 card) benner	C	Folklore: panic years, good times (sell), hard times (buy). For curiosity only.	8 event lines	Samuel Benner 1875 cycle card
Full moons full-moons	C	Fringe. No solid proof of any effect. ±1 day accuracy.	215 event lines	Computed: mean lunar cycle from a known new moon (±1 day)
New moons new-moons	C	Fringe. No solid proof of any effect. ±1 day accuracy.	216 event lines	Computed: mean lunar cycle from a known new moon (±1 day)

How it works

Path	Role
public/js/catalog.js	Every overlay: id, group, grade, description, build()
public/js/events-data.js	Hand-curated event dates (fact-checked October 2026)
public/js/calc.js	Math: moving averages, RSI, resampling, power-law fit, compare stats
public/js/overlay-primitive.js	Draws event lines and shaded periods on the chart
public/js/app.js	UI, panel, compare table, remote-control commands
server/server.mjs	Local static server plus a Server-Sent Events bridge for remote commands
server/fetch-data.mjs	Downloads all free data into data/ (not committed)

To add an overlay, add an entry to ITEMS in catalog.js, then run npm run docs.

Data sources and credits

• BTC candles: Bitstamp
• Early price, MVRV, supply, hash rate, addresses: CoinMetrics community API
• Fed, rates, M2, dollar, CPI, Nasdaq, VIX, recessions: FRED, St. Louis Fed
• Difficulty: blockchain.com
• Fear & Greed: alternative.me
• Stablecoins: DefiLlama
• Chart engine: TradingView Lightweight Charts (Apache-2.0)

Each source has its own terms of use. This repo ships code only. Data downloads to your machine when you run the app.

License

MIT. See LICENSE.

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Built by Crypto Crow. More at CryptoCrow.io and on YouTube.